There are preparing very big amount of agreements for this event, and it seems that not all of them will be fixed on the paper. But we aware that Poroshenko is not able to take his word of honor.
Russia must safe Ukraine from default, and must 't keep it from freezing. In the exchange, we have been allowed to start recover Donbass by our own expenses and in the terminal order fill underground gas storages. Ukraine by means of Prodan has already announced that it won't make any prepayment, the payment will be only pay-as.
Now Prodan is a serious partner whom comfortable working with. And that's why Russia respectfully suggested compromise solution - installment for the depts (it is a sarcasm of author - ed.). For the first installment will be until march of next year, but it can be continued.
Gentlemen's believe on bare word of themselves, but they also ask to add some actions. Just to be sure. Both partners have a serious problem with combatants which is out of their control. So they have to solve this problem before the summit. Poroshenko have already done his part of deal - he has fired the Minister of Defense - Geletey, who didn't serve at army at all, and from time to time was amusing (the author is trying to tell us in sarcastic manner, that resignation of Geletay isn't be worth as a serious guaranties, because he would have been resigned anyway - ed.).
Putin has much more serious problem. As we've seen, this problem is resolving in hard way. Last events in Donetsk confirm us activity in this direction. "Hmuriy" (name of field commander) have figured out that his squad is not in new stuffing army of DPR, which has been approved by Kononov. There aren't be "Bad Soldure" batalion there as well. Commanders Motorola and Givi just realized, that they were sent to Airport for the death. Not only "Slavyans", but also "Oplot" and "Vostok" have figure out that they must cut their squads.
The word "demilitarisation" wasn't pronounced, but it is clear by the facts. Just to be clear, it is Yugoslavia 2.0. And in this place starts the most interesting things. Army of Novorossiya becomes microscopical militia. It is well known, how such a layoffs will be. There will stay only loyal, but not ideological. Thank you for everyone, everyone is free! Because the idea of transformation of militia to territorial batallions with submission to ministry of police is absolutely finished. Ministry of police is of DPR submission, but it may change submission to Ukraine at any time.
By the way, information about patrolling of the state border together with ukrainian army is not look like madness. Because in that case militia won't have enough people. It will need a help.
Kidding is finished. Order of stuffing has been signed by the Ministry of defense of DPR. It will be executed or won't. The chose is not difficult. Everyone who will be revolted against, will become a rebellions in second time. And Russia will help their brothers from head of DPR to liquidate rebellions. So territorian batalion of Donbass and Lagantsk together with army of Ukraine will make a peace in whole country.
This is fantastic scenario. But it seems that reconstructors (Strelkov - ed.) have started rebellion, but fantasts will have finished it.
If talk in a serious manner, there might be a lot of scenarios. The events take the final phase and hurrying up. Moscow must will liquidate uncontrolled leaders until the summit in Minsk. The third generation of republicans leaders must be loyal and submissive.
Правда, военные могут попытаться и поломать заготовленный сценарий - но для этого они должны собраться, поговорить, найти решение. А как это сделать, если совета командиров нет, а есть раздробленные отряды, подозрительно вплоть до стрельбы относящиеся друг к другу? Время - самый ценный ресурс, и сейчас его катастрофически мало.
But warriors can try to break down this scenario. But before that they must have meeting and make decision. But how can they do it, if there are no Union of Commanders. There are only separate battalions, which don't trust each other? Time is the most valuable resource, and it getting catastrophically late.
We have to waite, what will be the actions of commanders, which suddenly realized these details. If they are really going to do something. Yesterday accident with Gubarev maybe a some sort of hint for those, which are going to tell something forbidden.el-murid
Ebola, for my opinion, can become quite serious management technology, which is absolutely relevant to the american strategy of "controlled chaus". It doesn't matter whether this situation has been initiated by somebody or it has happened naturally, but these kind of infections are seems to biological weapon, which aim is to disorient management of attacked country or group of countries.
Spread of Ebola virus has not fatal threat yet, but even now we can assume, what will be happening in case of real attack. The survivors will be only people, who will be able for immediately reaction and creates quarantine zones without any pity and humanism to the concrete man, and act for the survival of all people.
In this case spanish animals protectors are working for the aggressor, creating obstacles for such events. Spanish government demonstrates criminal negligence with humanists. We must be clear that people who chase for trends, have already put a christ on Spain. In case of real attack this country won't have a chance for operational acts and for 1-2 weeks will jump into a full chaos.
There is the nuance that "color revolutions" is for the savages. To be precise, for the kind of savages, which is already started implementation western democracy, breaking all theirs traditions. That's why they become vulnerable in face of "rose revolution" or Maydan. Totalitarian and authoritarian countries can't be defeated by these technologies, because they have mobilisation instruments which can extinguish protestors in their capitals. Iran, China, Minsk and Moscow have already be able to work with these scenarios, at least yet.
Deadly viruses can become the new level decision for the task of taking under control whole countries. For that cases have been used terrorists and "color rebellions". It is cheap, but not enough effective weapon with a lot of side effects. Besides that, it has explicitly difficult apparat of management, which can go out under control.
Implemention scenario of "Resident Evil" may seems absolutely absurd, but for the rational manner it can be perspective. Technology is very simple: infection - distribution - destroying of management. And then the saviours will appear, which will provide vaccination with hollywood happy end. But the apparat of management have been destroyed, peoples are disoriented, extern management is started. This is the same result which US is trying to get by "color revolution".
Totalitarian and authoritarian countries are able to deal with Ebola, there aren't any doubts. Just because they can do events for localization of epidemy. But there are a lot of doubts for european countries.
The spanish history, when the government couldn't act in emergency situation for two days, show us that aggressive minority is able to stop the events, which are vital for safety of millions people. Highly pathogenic virus, for two additional days can run uncontrolled process, which can't be stopped.
Even if Ebola virus is natural epidemy, it will be very useful to watch, how government in different countries acts. But if it has a special origin, then we can see huge experiment of war checking government departments efficiency. And it seems that especially Europe isn't ready for the scenario of Apocalypse. If it's true, then such a technologies is creating against european, It's a quite logical, when "color revolutions' are for Ukraine and special approach for France, Spain and others. And this special approach is creating now. If it will be necessary, they will implement it, without any doubts.
We've got a very interesting and unexpected message from Donetsk People Republic. Zakharchenko, who were prime minster just has resigned.
As we know, Zakharchenko was representative of "Party Of Peace" in Russia. He was the oficial persona from Donetsk, who has been used for legitimization of Minsk agreement. Some of combat commanders were strictly against this truce and they are blaming personally Zakharchenko in betraying the ideas of republic.
At the first sight it seems that has happened some conspiracy against Zakharchenko and whole "Party Of Peace". Especially if we are viewing situation in context of the last remarkable events. Union of Novorossiya Commanders, which was initiated by Strelkov and Mozgovoy, rumors about the attack of ukrainian army; transferring election for one week later. All these events hint us that truce may be breaking down at any time.
But we also should know that this truce is vital for Europe and Russia. The winter is coming and continuing of fighting may take transit of gas under the real risk. So EU and Russia will do al their best to prevent that. So, maybe there will be just a some PR combination for Zakharchenko, because he is going to be elected.
I think we will see results in the nearest future, but intrigue is still active.
Federica Mogherini who will be the next high representative EU of foreign politics told that we can’t let Russia to make land corridor to Crimea.
The situation with corridor is absolutely ambiguous. It has been not much time passed since british have created analogue problem for Hitler with corridor to East Prussia, using Poland. As the result, there were involvement Europe in continental and then in the World War. And only in the newest time Russia with a lot of problems solved the problem of Kaliningrad Bay. By the way, It’s also one of threat for Russia.
The winter is coming. Kerch crossing will continue working and nobody will close it. But the problem will stay with temporary solution until the bridge will be built. Crimea’s connectivity with another territory of Russia is still not OK and this is not acceptable for strategic territory. The land corridor might have been already existing more then month, but it’s still attracted solution.
It would be logical to lead Ukraine to collapse, wait for the final catastrophe and then just take everything will fall. But interests of gas monopoly forcing it to agree with nazi, offering temporary solution of gas problem. It is obvious that interest of Gazprom is prevention of supply disruption in Europe. Loss of ukrainian market is a serious hit, but they can’t allow problem with EU. The energetic superstate which is highly depends on trading gas can’t allow this. That’s why the have submissive position in negotiations, but Moscow is trying to look like that is not true.
But trouble is not walking alone. Some assumptions appears, that the US and Saudi are making conspiracy, and as the result we see price reduction. Likely this conspiracy is just a tactical for Saudi, because their budget is depending on fuel trading for 95%. So, there is a real limit for any conspiracy. Saudi can be able to make budget only for the price of 98$ for barrel.
But Saudi can be able to take conspiracy for while, and take some guarantees from the US. There is no economy, there is only politics, that's why this conspiracy can’t have long terms at least for this reason. Market of oil is too global to be manipulated politically. But market of gas is very sensitive, because there is no global market of gas. Conspiracy for the oil can be made against gas interests of Russia, and for the final goal against of the russian party of war, which insist on the final solution of ukrainian problem by means of destroying Ukraine.
«The Party of Peace» is ready to take any agreement with the West, just to save at least some part of stability in energy trading, despite of not profitability. The Party of Peace is very needed by the West, because using it, he can influence to Russia forcing to make steps back. Retreat can lead to the point where it won’t be possible to turn back. It seems that land corridor to Crimea one of the facts of that pressure.
There weren't any clear reasons for rebels to stop offensive to the direction of Mariupol -Melitopol - Genichesk. Especially if there weren't be any obstacles until the Dnepr river. The west was forced to consider the fact and it has made decision, thinking about the threat of existing corridor. In this case Kiev were forced to solve the problem defense of the Dnepr river, and there will be no thought about offensive to Donetsk. After that, Russia would just need to wait until Kiev will get a catastrophe.
But now everything becomes a quite opposite. The victory of «Party of Peace» was lead to the threat of offensive on Donetsk. There is an information that Geletey, who is minister of defense offered to Poroshenko offensive on Donetsk and gave guarantees that he will defeat rebels in a few days.
Poroshenko didn't give to Geletey authority to make decisions by himself. At least until volunteers from Russia will stay with rebels. There are might be about thousand and a half volunteers there, But technic was already moved out. Fears of Poroshenko caused by the threat of land corridor to Crimea in the case of offensive failure. If Donetsk will be able to stand, then will be inevitably response of rebels. In this case there will be impossible to stop the south offensive. The creation of land corridor will give stronger position to the party of war and whole situation will be under the risk.
Probably Mogherini’s warning is considering all scenarios. She think that it will be a better way not to risk of existing fragile balance, at least until the spring. The interests of energy safety is in higher priority now.
Likely the US absolutely disagree with that balance and they will try to force Ukraine to make an attack. Ukraine is just a bargaining chip for the US. They even will be pleased by temporary victory of Russia. Goal of the US is not Russia, it is Europe. The US needs to break partnership between Europe and Russia. They need to get persuasive arguments in creating of free atlantic trading zone. European market will be the prize for an american corporations. The US must be hurry, they have no time, that’s why situation become so risky.
If ukrainian army start an attack to Donets - it will be a marker that the US has defeated european opposition. If offensive is take a place, there will be a risk of gas transit. And there will be inevitable breaching of agreement between Europe, Russia and Ukraine. In that case breaking partnership between Europe and Russia will be the real fact.